The forecasts of international institutions

This year, like never before, a number of factors are contributing to the success of the tourist season; among them, the lasting fine weather, the sinister terrorism that struck in some Mediterranean countries and drove many people not to travel too far from Italy, and some optimism regarding the economic recovery.
The economy is sending some positive signals, encouraging hopes. Bank of Italy has adjusted its GDP growth expectations upward to 1.4%, and this leads to some reflection on the reliability of estimates developed by the large international institutions.
In a comparative table published by Corriere della Sera, I find that last spring (I am not talking about years ago) the European Union expected Italy to grow by 0,9%, and the World Bank by 0.9%. The difference may seem small, but it is in fact 50%, and this is what other countries’ policies are based on, as well as impositions from Brussels, in the case of Italy, which ultimately affect the pockets of all of us.
The wrongest of all estimates was that by the International Monetary Fund (with 0.8%), whose managing director, Christine Lagarde , following Dominique Strauss Kahn’s resignation due to the well-known New York scandal, is now risking to be remembered more for her refined elegance (I can’t help admiring her every time I see her on TV) than for the accuracy of her insitution’s estimates.
Let’s hope that they go on making mistakes, and we go on growing!
So, the time has now come for a break. It only remains for me to wish you all a pleasant August, and say goodbye until September , in the hope – as Dario Di Vico writes in Corriere della Sera, that “the real economy continues to be at the top of the agenda; many (correctly) fear, in fact, that once the beach umbreallas have been closed, we are only going to be talking about constituencies, candidates, and skirmishes between leaders”.